By 2050, Americans over the age of 65 will comprise more than 25 percent of the population, accounting for over 88 million people, according to projections from the United States Department of Health and Human Services. That’s more than double the number of seniors that lived in America just in the year 2000, which stood at 34 million.
Why the rise? Two primary factors: the Baby Boom generation, those born between 1945 and 1964 are one of the nation’s two biggest demographic groups, and they are aging and quickly entering retirement. The second factor? People, in general, are living longer. In fact, according to a recent study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Americans born in 2010 can expect to live to be 78.4 years of age, with women living even longer.
Americans are living longer now than we have in our country’s history– news that should be cause for celebration for America’s healthcare providers. But instead, it is revealing fissures in the system that could break it, if they aren’t addressed. Here’s how the upcoming “silver tsunami” may rewrite the way healthcare is delivered, for everyone.
Experts estimate that chronic disease is now responsible for 85 percent of all healthcare costs. This is driven by older Americans, who are now suffering from the effects of obesity, diabetes, heart disease, arthritis and more.
This will mean that instead of a system where physicians are compensated for every procedure and service given, physicians will be given a stipend for the yearly care of their patients, which they must manage to ensure patients get the best preventative care. This is already the norm in many European countries, and will likely become the norm for American Medicare patients first, as America struggles to contain rising healthcare costs.
According to the American Geriatric Society, the US now has 7,000 registered geriatricians, but will need 30,000 to meet the country’s needs by 2030. Geriatricians specialize in dealing with patients over 65, who usually have multiple chronic and deteriorating conditions, and who are on multiple medications. They understand the many differences between how older patients need to be treated, versus younger patients who may have more acute or temporary problems. That increased understanding will keep patients from being over or under treated, based on false assumptions. And could improve the healthcare of seniors overall.
However, because Geriatricians are not compensated as well as their peers in other specialties, and delivering healthcare to older patients is complex and difficult, recruitment of physicians into the profession is lagging far behind goals.It is a challenge the US must address if it is to find ways to treat its aging population, and get better healthcare outcomes.
In fact, according to a recent market sizing done by AARP/Parks Associates in 2016, home care is now a $279 billion market. Why? The average senior over the age of 75 has a net worth, including home equity, of $156,000. With senior housing costing an average of $42,000 a year, and nursing homes costing even more, seniors and their families will be turning to cheaper in-home care alternatives more than ever.
Deals are already being made between tech companies and home health care companies to create an “internet of things” for senior homes. Passive sensors in the floor will monitor how much grandma is moving around, and whether she has fallen. Smart refrigerators will monitor if there is any food in the fridge or if it has spoiled. High-tech canes will monitor Grandma’s gait and walking stability. High tech medicine dispensers will remind patients to take their medicine and mix the right combinations together for them. Nurses will be able to check in on their patients every day via phone over tablet phone chats. Options abound, and will only get sped to development more quickly by pressing patient needs.
Stay tuned for more from the Louisville Innovation Summit, as we will be continuing to explore the changing face of healthcare for seniors as we lead up to the 2016 conference, slated for October in Louisville, Ky.
Register now for the 2016 Louisville Innovation Summit.
